AFLW · ROUND 2 · MISSION WHITTEN OVAL
Western Bulldogs v Richmond
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 2:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 26
WB to win, 86% chance
WB 86%14% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 11
HIT Actual margin 11 · 15.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 82 | 67 to 96 | 47 to 116 | 71% | 52% | 32% | 18% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 145 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | R | 79 | 65 to 93 | 45 to 113 | 66% | 47% | 33% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 68 | 55 to 82 | 36 to 101 | 44% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Mikala Cann | RR | 68 | 55 to 82 | 36 to 101 | 44% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Britney Gutknecht | CHB | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Rylie Wilcox | INT | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Dominique Carruthers | WR | 54 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Elle Bennetts | HBFL | 53 | 41 to 65 | 24 to 83 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 84 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Emma McDonald | FF | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Sarah Poustie | INT | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 48 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFR | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Lauren Ahrens | FB | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Deanna Berry | INT | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17 |
| Cleo Buttifant | INT | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 31 |
| Amaia Wain | FPR | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | BPL | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Mizuki Brothwell | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monique Conti | RR | 97 | 82 to 113 | 60 to 134 | 89% | 78% | 62% | 44% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Sierra Grieves | C | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Dana East | INT | 55 | 43 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Ally Dallaway | HBFR | 54 | 42 to 67 | 24 to 84 | 20% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Katie Brennan | HFFR | 52 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 80 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 77 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Libby Graham | WL | 47 | 35 to 59 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 43 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 41 | 29 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Rebecca Miller | FB | 41 | 29 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Charli Wicksteed | WR | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14 |
| Isabel Bacon | HBFL | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 63 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 68 |
| Maddie Shevlin | INT | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 35 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | INT | 27 | 17 to 37 | 4 to 51 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19 |