AFLW · ROUND 2 · MISSION WHITTEN OVAL
Western Bulldogs v Richmond
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 2:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 26
WB to win, 86% chance
WB 86%14% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 11
HIT Actual margin 11 · 15.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 70% | 30% | 15% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emma McDonald | FF | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 64% | 25% | 11% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 41% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Deanna Berry | INT | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 43% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 43% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 33% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Amaia Wain | FPR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 19% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mikala Cann | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sarah Poustie | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Elle Bennetts | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mizuki Brothwell | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lauren Ahrens | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 64% | 25% | 12% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Katie Brennan | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 43% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 42% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Monique Conti | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dana East | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maddie Shevlin | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ally Dallaway | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Libby Graham | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rebecca Miller | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |