AFLW · ROUND 2 · MISSION WHITTEN OVAL
Western Bulldogs v Richmond
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 2:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 26
WB to win, 86% chance
WB 86%14% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 11
HIT Actual margin 11 · 15.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikala Cann | RR | 5.8 | 4.0 to 7.7 | 1.7 to 9.9 | 88% | 77% | 64% | 53% | 40% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sarah Poustie | INT | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.1 | 1.5 to 9.3 | 85% | 73% | 56% | 40% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.3 to 9.0 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 39% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.6 | 78% | 65% | 49% | 32% | 24% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | R | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.7 | 79% | 68% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | WR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 77% | 59% | 47% | 32% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 65% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 13% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 46% | 27% | 11% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Amaia Wain | FPR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 29% | 14% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | CHB | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 35% | 21% | 9% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Emma McDonald | FF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Deanna Berry | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Elle Bennetts | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mizuki Brothwell | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lauren Ahrens | FB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | BPL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monique Conti | RR | 6.4 | 4.5 to 8.3 | 2.1 to 10.7 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 73% | 56% | 46% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 68% | 50% | 38% | 24% | 14% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dana East | INT | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 71% | 53% | 39% | 24% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | C | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 6.9 | 69% | 49% | 32% | 17% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | HBFL | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 60% | 46% | 30% | 15% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 61% | 41% | 24% | 13% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | WR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 46% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ally Dallaway | HBFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 56% | 32% | 22% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 45% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Katie Brennan | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Libby Graham | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Maddie Shevlin | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Rebecca Miller | FB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |