AFLW · ROUND 3 · UNLEY OVAL
Adelaide Crows v West Coast Eagles
Sat 29 Aug 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 15
ADE to win, 74% chance
ADE 74%26% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 17
HIT Actual margin 17 · 1.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 27.1 | 23.3 to 31.0 | 17.6 to 36.7 | 98% | 91% | 68% | 35% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 20.8 | 17.3 to 24.2 | 12.3 to 29.3 | 89% | 60% | 23% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 20.0 | 16.6 to 23.4 | 11.6 to 28.4 | 85% | 54% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 19.9 | 16.5 to 23.3 | 11.6 to 28.3 | 85% | 53% | 19% | 4% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 16.9 | 13.7 to 20.1 | 9.1 to 24.7 | 65% | 26% | 7% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 14.5 | 11.6 to 17.5 | 7.2 to 21.9 | 49% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.0 | 5.4 to 19.1 | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.0 | 5.4 to 19.1 | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.2 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.3 | 4.8 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.1 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.7 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 9.8 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.1 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 7.9 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 7.8 | 5.5 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Christina Leuzzi | INT | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 6.2 | 4.1 to 8.4 | 0.9 to 11.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella Roberts | RR | 23.8 | 20.1 to 27.4 | 14.7 to 32.8 | 96% | 78% | 43% | 16% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Isabella Lewis | FPR | 19.7 | 16.3 to 23.1 | 11.3 to 28.0 | 84% | 50% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Charlotte Thomas | R | 19.1 | 15.7 to 22.4 | 10.9 to 27.3 | 79% | 42% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Jaide Britton | WL | 16.9 | 13.7 to 20.1 | 9.1 to 24.7 | 65% | 26% | 7% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Emma Swanson | HBFL | 16.8 | 13.6 to 20.0 | 9.0 to 24.6 | 64% | 26% | 7% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Abbygail Bushby | C | 14.4 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.8 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Lucia Painter | FF | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.5 | 6.4 to 20.7 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Georgie Cleaver | HBFR | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Keeley Skepper | WR | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Charlotte Riggs | CHF | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Kellie Gibson | HFFL | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Lauren Wakfer | RK | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Ella Slocombe | CHB | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.4 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Zoe Wakfer | FB | 8.7 | 6.3 to 11.2 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Lisa Steane | INT | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Amy Franklin | HFFR | 8.0 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Belinda Smith | INT | 7.2 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.6 to 12.8 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Isabella Shannon | INT | 7.2 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.6 to 12.8 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Sarah Lakay | INT | 6.9 | 4.7 to 9.1 | 1.4 to 12.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Natasha Entwistle | BPL | 6.7 | 4.5 to 8.9 | 1.3 to 12.2 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Sanne Bakker | INT | 6.5 | 4.4 to 8.7 | 1.2 to 11.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |