AFLW · ROUND 3 · UNLEY OVAL
Adelaide Crows v West Coast Eagles
Sat 29 Aug 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 15
ADE to win, 74% chance
ADE 74%26% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 17
HIT Actual margin 17 · 1.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 120 | 104 to 137 | 80 to 160 | 99% | 96% | 90% | 80% | 66% | inside our 90% range: 149 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 80 | 66 to 94 | 46 to 115 | 69% | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 75 | 61 to 89 | 42 to 108 | 58% | 40% | 26% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 72 | 58 to 85 | 39 to 105 | 54% | 35% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 64 | 50 to 77 | 32 to 95 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 98 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 57 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 52 | 40 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 48 | 37 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 36 | 26 to 47 | 10 to 63 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 35 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Christina Leuzzi | INT | 31 | 21 to 41 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella Roberts | RR | 98 | 83 to 114 | 62 to 136 | 90% | 80% | 64% | 46% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Isabella Lewis | FPR | 75 | 61 to 88 | 41 to 108 | 58% | 40% | 25% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Charlotte Thomas | R | 74 | 60 to 88 | 40 to 107 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Jaide Britton | WL | 70 | 57 to 84 | 38 to 103 | 50% | 33% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Emma Swanson | HBFL | 67 | 54 to 80 | 35 to 99 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Lauren Wakfer | RK | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Lucia Painter | FF | 59 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Abbygail Bushby | C | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Georgie Cleaver | HBFR | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Keeley Skepper | WR | 47 | 35 to 59 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Kellie Gibson | HFFL | 46 | 34 to 57 | 18 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Charlotte Riggs | CHF | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Lisa Steane | INT | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Sarah Lakay | INT | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Amy Franklin | HFFR | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Ella Slocombe | CHB | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Zoe Wakfer | FB | 37 | 26 to 47 | 10 to 63 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 64 |
| Sanne Bakker | INT | 31 | 21 to 42 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Isabella Shannon | INT | 30 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 55 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Belinda Smith | INT | 29 | 19 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Natasha Entwistle | BPL | 29 | 19 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 43 |