AFLW · ROUND 3 · UNLEY OVAL
Adelaide Crows v West Coast Eagles
Sat 29 Aug 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 15
ADE to win, 74% chance
ADE 74%26% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 17
HIT Actual margin 17 · 1.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 1.2 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 84% | 30% | 15% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 39% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 62% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 57% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 57% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Christina Leuzzi | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 39% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 39% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amy Franklin | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 57% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lucia Painter | FF | 0.6 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 45% | 20% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlotte Riggs | CHF | 0.5 | 0.3 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ella Roberts | RR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 43% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isabella Lewis | FPR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 43% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kellie Gibson | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lauren Wakfer | RK | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 43% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Keeley Skepper | WR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ella Slocombe | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Abbygail Bushby | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Belinda Smith | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlotte Thomas | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Emma Swanson | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isabella Shannon | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaide Britton | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lisa Steane | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Natasha Entwistle | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sanne Bakker | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sarah Lakay | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgie Cleaver | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zoe Wakfer | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |