AFLW · ROUND 3 · UNLEY OVAL
Adelaide Crows v West Coast Eagles
Sat 29 Aug 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 15
ADE to win, 74% chance
ADE 74%26% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 17
HIT Actual margin 17 · 1.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 9.7 | 7.3 to 12.1 | 4.5 to 15.0 | 100% | 98% | 95% | 88% | 82% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 5.7 | 3.9 to 7.5 | 1.7 to 9.7 | 85% | 74% | 64% | 49% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.3 to 9.0 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 39% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 65% | 46% | 29% | 14% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 49% | 32% | 17% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 52% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 40% | 23% | 9% | 5% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 45% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 44% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 27% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 37% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Christina Leuzzi | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella Roberts | RR | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.4 | 2.2 to 10.8 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jaide Britton | WL | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 79% | 67% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Keeley Skepper | WR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 64% | 49% | 32% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lucia Painter | FF | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 6.9 | 69% | 49% | 32% | 16% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Isabella Lewis | FPR | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 65% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lauren Wakfer | RK | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 64% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Abbygail Bushby | C | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlotte Thomas | R | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 53% | 37% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Emma Swanson | HBFL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kellie Gibson | HFFL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lisa Steane | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sanne Bakker | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 56% | 36% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Zoe Wakfer | FB | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 46% | 27% | 11% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Charlotte Riggs | CHF | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sarah Lakay | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ella Slocombe | CHB | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Amy Franklin | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 27% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Belinda Smith | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgie Cleaver | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isabella Shannon | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Natasha Entwistle | BPL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |