AFLW · ROUND 3 · VICTORIA PARK
Collingwood v Hawthorn
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 22
HAW to win, 82% chance
COL 18%82% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 28
HIT Actual margin 28 · 5.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 21.4 | 17.9 to 24.9 | 12.8 to 30.1 | 91% | 64% | 27% | 7% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Brianna Davey | C | 18.9 | 15.6 to 22.2 | 10.7 to 27.1 | 78% | 41% | 13% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Tarni White | CHB | 18.2 | 14.9 to 21.5 | 10.1 to 26.3 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 17.7 | 14.5 to 20.9 | 9.7 to 25.7 | 70% | 31% | 9% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Ashley Centra | FF | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 7.0 to 21.7 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Carly Remmos | R | 14.4 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.8 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | FB | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Sarah Rowe | INT | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.1 | 6.1 to 20.3 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Ruby Schleicher | CHF | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.3 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Kalinda Howarth | HBFL | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.2 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.4 | 4.9 to 18.4 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Kellyann Hogan | WL | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.1 | 3.3 to 15.8 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Lauren Butler | INT | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.3 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | HBFR | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.5 | 2.9 to 15.1 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.7 | 2.4 to 14.2 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | FPR | 7.9 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.1 to 13.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | RK | 7.8 | 5.5 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.8 to 13.2 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | HFFR | 7.4 | 5.2 to 9.7 | 1.8 to 13.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Mischa Barwin | HFFL | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Charlotte Brewer | INT | 6.5 | 4.3 to 8.6 | 1.1 to 11.8 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliza West | R | 23.7 | 20.1 to 27.4 | 14.7 to 32.7 | 96% | 78% | 43% | 16% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Emily Bates | C | 20.9 | 17.5 to 24.4 | 12.4 to 29.5 | 90% | 61% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 20.1 | 16.7 to 23.6 | 11.7 to 28.6 | 86% | 55% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.6 | 53% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | INT | 15.0 | 12.0 to 18.0 | 7.6 to 22.5 | 52% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 50% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Laura Stone | HFFR | 14.1 | 11.2 to 17.0 | 6.8 to 21.4 | 40% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | WL | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 12.9 | 10.0 to 15.7 | 5.9 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 12.7 | 9.8 to 15.5 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | RR | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Greta Bodey | HFFL | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 9.6 | 7.0 to 12.1 | 3.3 to 15.8 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.5 | 3.0 to 15.1 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 8.1 | 5.7 to 10.4 | 2.2 to 13.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 7.0 | 4.7 to 9.2 | 1.4 to 12.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | INT | 6.4 | 4.3 to 8.6 | 1.1 to 11.8 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jess Vukic | INT | 5.4 | 3.4 to 7.5 | 0.4 to 10.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |