AFLW · ROUND 3 · VICTORIA PARK
Collingwood v Hawthorn
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 22
HAW to win, 82% chance
COL 18%82% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 28
HIT Actual margin 28 · 5.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 88 | 73 to 102 | 52 to 123 | 79% | 63% | 44% | 28% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Brianna Davey | C | 80 | 66 to 94 | 46 to 114 | 68% | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 32 |
| Tarni White | CHB | 73 | 59 to 87 | 40 to 106 | 55% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 72 | 58 to 85 | 39 to 105 | 54% | 35% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Carly Remmos | R | 68 | 54 to 81 | 36 to 100 | 43% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Ashley Centra | FF | 65 | 52 to 78 | 33 to 96 | 38% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Ruby Schleicher | CHF | 57 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 27% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Sarah Rowe | INT | 53 | 41 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Kalinda Howarth | HBFL | 51 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Jordyn Allen | FB | 51 | 38 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Ariana Hetherington | RK | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 74 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Lauren Butler | INT | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Jemma Rigoni | HBFR | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Kellyann Hogan | WL | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Josephine Bamford | HFFR | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 64 |
| Mischa Barwin | HFFL | 33 | 22 to 43 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 65 |
| Imogen Trengove | FPR | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Charlotte Brewer | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 24 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Wales | RK | 100 | 84 to 115 | 62 to 137 | 91% | 80% | 66% | 48% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 116 |
| Eliza West | R | 88 | 73 to 103 | 52 to 123 | 80% | 64% | 45% | 29% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Emily Bates | C | 80 | 66 to 94 | 46 to 115 | 69% | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 64 | 51 to 77 | 32 to 96 | 37% | 22% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Laura Stone | HFFR | 64 | 50 to 77 | 32 to 95 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 62 | 49 to 75 | 30 to 93 | 30% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Jasmine Fleming | INT | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Daisy Flockart | RR | 57 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 27% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | WL | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 52 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Greta Bodey | HFFL | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 80 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Mikaylah Antony | INT | 31 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 56 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 30 | 20 to 40 | 6 to 55 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Jess Vukic | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 28 |