AFLW · ROUND 3 · VICTORIA PARK
Collingwood v Hawthorn
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 22
HAW to win, 82% chance
COL 18%82% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 28
HIT Actual margin 28 · 5.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Centra | FF | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 57% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kalinda Howarth | HBFL | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ruby Schleicher | CHF | 0.6 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 44% | 20% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | FPR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | HFFR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mischa Barwin | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brianna Davey | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Carly Remmos | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlotte Brewer | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kellyann Hogan | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Rowe | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tarni White | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lauren Butler | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 1.8 | 1.3 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 100% | 46% | 25% | 15% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 1.3 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 84% | 31% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Greta Bodey | HFFL | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 69% | 25% | 13% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 57% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Laura Stone | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 43% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Eliza West | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Emily Bates | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 24% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jess Vukic | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |