AFLW · ROUND 3 · VICTORIA PARK
Collingwood v Hawthorn
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 22
HAW to win, 82% chance
COL 18%82% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 28
HIT Actual margin 28 · 5.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarni White | CHB | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.0 to 6.9 | 58% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | FB | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 46% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ashley Centra | FF | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 46% | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kalinda Howarth | HBFL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ruby Schleicher | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Carly Remmos | R | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Rowe | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Brianna Davey | C | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kellyann Hogan | WL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lauren Butler | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mischa Barwin | HFFL | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Charlotte Brewer | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | FPR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.3 to 7.8 | 61% | 49% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 49% | 33% | 19% | 11% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 49% | 33% | 20% | 11% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 24% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Emily Bates | C | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Greta Bodey | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eliza West | R | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Laura Stone | HFFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | RR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jess Vukic | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |