AFLW · ROUND 3 · VICTORIA PARK
Collingwood v Hawthorn
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 22
HAW to win, 82% chance
COL 18%82% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 28
HIT Actual margin 28 · 5.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 7.0 | 5.0 to 9.0 | 2.5 to 11.4 | 95% | 86% | 77% | 65% | 53% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Brianna Davey | C | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.5 | 2.2 to 10.9 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 60% | 49% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Carly Remmos | R | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.2 | 2.1 to 10.5 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 77% | 61% | 48% | 32% | 18% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Ruby Schleicher | CHF | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 65% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tarni White | CHB | 3.7 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 71% | 53% | 32% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 49% | 32% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kellyann Hogan | WL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | RK | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ashley Centra | FF | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | HFFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | HBFR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 48% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 30% | 15% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mischa Barwin | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sarah Rowe | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | FPR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 30% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charlotte Brewer | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 27% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kalinda Howarth | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 37% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lauren Butler | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 35% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Bates | C | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.4 | 1.6 to 9.6 | 85% | 74% | 62% | 49% | 38% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Eliza West | R | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.5 to 9.4 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 49% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | RR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.4 to 9.0 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 40% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Laura Stone | HFFR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 74% | 56% | 42% | 31% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.9 | 77% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.7 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | INT | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 56% | 45% | 27% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | WL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 46% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 38% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Greta Bodey | HFFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 20% | 10% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 56% | 37% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 25% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jess Vukic | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |