AFLW · ROUND 3 · TIO STADIUM
Essendon v Richmond
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 6:50pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ESS by 7
ESS to win, 61% chance
ESS 61%39% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 5
MISS Actual margin 5 · 11.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Prespakis | RR | 24.9 / inside our 90% range: 32.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 90 / inside our 90% range: 118 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | C | 20.5 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 7.3 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 88 / inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Amy Gaylor | R | 19.4 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.4 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 77 / inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Bonnie Toogood | FF | 14.7 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Stephanie Cain | CHB | 14.0 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 59 / inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Georgia Gee | WR | 13.8 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 56 / inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Georgia Clarke | HBFR | 13.4 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 51 / inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 12.4 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 73 / inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Grace Belloni | HFFR | 11.6 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 46 / inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Mia Busch | HFFL | 11.3 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Alexandra Morcom | BPL | 11.1 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 45 / inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Matilda Dyke | HBFL | 10.2 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 40 / inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 9.9 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 44 / inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | INT | 9.8 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 44 / inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Holly Ridewood | WL | 9.5 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 41 / inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Sophie Alexander | FPR | 9.3 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 46 / inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | INT | 8.9 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 41 / inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Brooke Walker | INT | 8.6 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 45 / inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Maggie Johnstone | INT | 8.4 / outside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 35 / inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Nalu Brothwell | CHF | 7.5 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 33 / inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Emily Gough | INT | 6.1 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 30 / inside our 90% range: 45 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monique Conti | RR | 25.0 / inside our 90% range: 29.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 6.4 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 100 / inside our 50% range: 113 |
| Sierra Grieves | C | 15.4 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 58 / inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Dana East | WR | 14.6 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 58 / outside our 90% range: 12 |
| Ally Dallaway | HBFR | 14.4 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 56 / inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Katie Brennan | HFFR | 11.9 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 11.5 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 46 / inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Libby Graham | WL | 11.1 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 46 / inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 10.4 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 51 / inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Rebecca Miller | INT | 9.9 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 38 / inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 9.8 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 46 / inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 9.8 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 41 / inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 9.3 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 46 / inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 9.3 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 55 / inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 9.2 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.3 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 50 / inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 9.0 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Isabel Bacon | HBFL | 7.8 / outside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.2 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 41 / inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 7.8 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.2 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 36 / inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 7.5 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 33 / inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | FB | 7.0 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 30 / inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Charli Wicksteed | INT | 6.7 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 33 / inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 5.8 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 28 / inside our 90% range: 15 |