AFLW · ROUND 3 · TIO STADIUM
Essendon v Richmond
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 6:50pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ESS by 7
ESS to win, 61% chance
ESS 61%39% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 5
MISS Actual margin 5 · 11.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Prespakis | RR | 24.9 | 21.2 to 28.6 | 15.7 to 34.1 | 96% | 83% | 53% | 21% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | C | 20.5 | 17.0 to 23.9 | 12.0 to 29.0 | 88% | 57% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | R | 19.4 | 16.0 to 22.7 | 11.1 to 27.7 | 82% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Bonnie Toogood | FF | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | CHB | 14.0 | 11.0 to 16.9 | 6.7 to 21.2 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Georgia Gee | WR | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | HBFR | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.3 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Grace Belloni | HFFR | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Mia Busch | HFFL | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | BPL | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.6 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | HBFL | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | INT | 9.8 | 7.3 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.1 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | WL | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Sophie Alexander | FPR | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.1 to 15.4 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | INT | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Brooke Walker | INT | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Maggie Johnstone | INT | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | CHF | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.8 to 13.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Emily Gough | INT | 6.1 | 4.0 to 8.3 | 0.9 to 11.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monique Conti | RR | 25.0 | 21.2 to 28.7 | 15.8 to 34.2 | 96% | 83% | 54% | 22% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | C | 15.4 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.9 to 22.9 | 55% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Dana East | WR | 14.6 | 11.6 to 17.6 | 7.2 to 22.0 | 50% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ally Dallaway | HBFR | 14.4 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.8 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Katie Brennan | HFFR | 11.9 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.6 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Libby Graham | WL | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.8 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Rebecca Miller | INT | 9.9 | 7.3 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 9.8 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.1 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 9.8 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.5 to 16.1 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.2 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.2 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.4 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.5 | 2.9 to 15.1 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | HBFL | 7.8 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 7.8 | 5.4 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.8 to 13.2 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | FB | 7.0 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | INT | 6.7 | 4.5 to 9.0 | 1.3 to 12.2 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 5.8 | 3.7 to 7.8 | 0.6 to 10.9 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |