AFLW · ROUND 3 · TIO STADIUM
Essendon v Richmond
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 6:50pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ESS by 7
ESS to win, 61% chance
ESS 61%39% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 5
MISS Actual margin 5 · 11.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Prespakis | RR | 90 | 75 to 105 | 54 to 126 | 82% | 68% | 49% | 31% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 118 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | C | 88 | 73 to 102 | 52 to 123 | 79% | 63% | 44% | 28% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Amy Gaylor | R | 77 | 63 to 91 | 43 to 111 | 61% | 43% | 29% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 73 | 59 to 86 | 40 to 106 | 55% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Bonnie Toogood | FF | 66 | 53 to 80 | 34 to 98 | 41% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Stephanie Cain | CHB | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Georgia Gee | WR | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Georgia Clarke | HBFR | 51 | 38 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Mia Busch | HFFL | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Grace Belloni | HFFR | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Sophie Alexander | FPR | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Alexandra Morcom | BPL | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Brooke Walker | INT | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | INT | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 44 | 32 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | INT | 41 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Holly Ridewood | WL | 41 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Matilda Dyke | HBFL | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Maggie Johnstone | INT | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Nalu Brothwell | CHF | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Emily Gough | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monique Conti | RR | 100 | 84 to 115 | 62 to 137 | 91% | 80% | 66% | 48% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 113 |
| Sierra Grieves | C | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Dana East | WR | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 12 |
| Ally Dallaway | HBFR | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Katie Brennan | HFFR | 53 | 41 to 65 | 24 to 83 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 50 | 38 to 61 | 21 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 48 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Libby Graham | WL | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 46 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 46 | 34 to 57 | 18 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 46 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Isabel Bacon | HBFL | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Rebecca Miller | INT | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 36 | 26 to 47 | 10 to 63 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Charli Wicksteed | INT | 33 | 22 to 43 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | FB | 30 | 20 to 40 | 6 to 55 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15 |