AFLW · ROUND 3 · TIO STADIUM
Essendon v Richmond
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 6:50pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ESS by 7
ESS to win, 61% chance
ESS 61%39% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 5
MISS Actual margin 5 · 11.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bonnie Toogood | FF | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 54% | 38% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | R | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | HBFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 33% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Madison Prespakis | RR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 26% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sophie Alexander | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Georgia Gee | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Grace Belloni | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mia Busch | HFFL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 14% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 13% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | CHF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Brooke Walker | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Emily Gough | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | WL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Maggie Johnstone | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 48% | 33% | 19% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Katie Brennan | HFFR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 46% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Libby Graham | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 29% | 15% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 26% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Monique Conti | RR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ally Dallaway | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dana East | WR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 23% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Rebecca Miller | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | HBFL | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |