AFLW · ROUND 3 · TIO STADIUM
Essendon v Richmond
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 6:50pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ESS by 7
ESS to win, 61% chance
ESS 61%39% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 5
MISS Actual margin 5 · 11.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Nanscawen | C | 7.3 | 5.2 to 9.3 | 2.7 to 11.8 | 96% | 88% | 78% | 71% | 56% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Madison Prespakis | RR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | R | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 47% | 31% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | CHB | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.7 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | WL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Brooke Walker | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 61% | 45% | 27% | 13% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mia Busch | HFFL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 50% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bonnie Toogood | FF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 46% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Gee | WR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 46% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | HBFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 29% | 14% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 33% | 21% | 8% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | BPL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 38% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Grace Belloni | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Maggie Johnstone | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 37% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | CHF | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sophie Alexander | FPR | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Emily Gough | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monique Conti | RR | 6.4 | 4.5 to 8.4 | 2.2 to 10.7 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Dana East | WR | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.3 | 75% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | HBFL | 4.2 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 68% | 50% | 38% | 24% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 65% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | C | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 64% | 49% | 31% | 15% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ally Dallaway | HBFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 55% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Katie Brennan | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 45% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 29% | 14% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 38% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Libby Graham | WL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | FB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 37% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rebecca Miller | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |