AFLW · ROUND 3 · COCKBURN ARC OVAL
Fremantle v Carlton
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 3
CAR to win, 55% chance
FRE 45%55% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 6
HIT Actual margin 6 · 3.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aisling McCarthy | R | 24.9 | 21.2 to 28.7 | 15.7 to 34.1 | 96% | 83% | 53% | 21% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 24.5 | 20.8 to 28.2 | 15.3 to 33.6 | 96% | 82% | 49% | 19% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Kiara Bowers | C | 22.6 | 19.0 to 26.1 | 13.7 to 31.4 | 93% | 72% | 36% | 11% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Mim Strom | RK | 21.1 | 17.7 to 24.6 | 12.5 to 29.7 | 90% | 62% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Emma O'Driscoll | BPL | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.5 | 9.4 to 25.2 | 69% | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | WL | 15.5 | 12.4 to 18.5 | 7.9 to 23.0 | 56% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | HFFL | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.8 | 6.6 to 21.1 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.3 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | HBFR | 12.2 | 9.4 to 15.0 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Aoife Healy | INT | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jessica Low | HBFL | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | HFFR | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.3 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | INT | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Indiana West | CHB | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.3 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 8.7 | 6.3 to 11.2 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Bella Smith | FPR | 7.2 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.6 to 12.8 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Holly Egan | FB | 7.0 | 4.7 to 9.2 | 1.5 to 12.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Indi Strom | INT | 7.0 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Georgie Brisbane | INT | 5.8 | 3.7 to 7.8 | 0.6 to 10.9 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Noa McNaughton | INT | 5.8 | 3.7 to 7.9 | 0.6 to 10.9 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mimi Hill | RR | 23.8 | 20.2 to 27.5 | 14.8 to 32.9 | 96% | 78% | 43% | 16% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Abbie McKay | R | 23.2 | 19.6 to 26.8 | 14.3 to 32.1 | 95% | 76% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WL | 21.8 | 18.3 to 25.3 | 13.1 to 30.5 | 92% | 67% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 21.5 | 18.0 to 25.0 | 12.8 to 30.1 | 91% | 65% | 27% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | HFFL | 18.8 | 15.5 to 22.1 | 10.6 to 26.9 | 78% | 40% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.6 | 53% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | FPR | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 6.9 to 21.5 | 41% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | CHB | 13.1 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.1 to 20.2 | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFR | 13.1 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.1 to 20.2 | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Sophie McKay | WR | 12.7 | 9.8 to 15.5 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.2 | 29% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lila Keck | INT | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.1 | 3.3 to 15.8 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Brooke Boileau | HFFR | 9.0 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | INT | 8.7 | 6.2 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Gabriella Pound | INT | 8.1 | 5.8 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | HBFL | 7.8 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.0 | 2.0 to 13.4 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tara Bohanna | INT | 7.2 | 4.9 to 9.5 | 1.6 to 12.8 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |