AFLW · ROUND 3 · COCKBURN ARC OVAL
Fremantle v Carlton
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 3
CAR to win, 55% chance
FRE 45%55% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 6
HIT Actual margin 6 · 3.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiara Bowers | C | 109 | 93 to 125 | 71 to 148 | 96% | 90% | 80% | 65% | 47% | inside our 90% range: 146 |
| Mim Strom | RK | 99 | 83 to 114 | 62 to 136 | 91% | 80% | 65% | 46% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 98 | 82 to 113 | 61 to 134 | 89% | 79% | 63% | 44% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 114 |
| Aisling McCarthy | R | 94 | 78 to 109 | 57 to 130 | 86% | 73% | 55% | 36% | 21% | outside our 90% range: 56 |
| Emma O'Driscoll | BPL | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 94 | 33% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Megan Kauffman | HFFL | 59 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Orlagh Lally | WL | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Sarah Verrier | HBFR | 52 | 40 to 64 | 23 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Aoife Healy | INT | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Jessica Low | HBFL | 43 | 32 to 54 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | HFFR | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 73 |
| Angelique Stannett | INT | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Indiana West | CHB | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Bella Smith | FPR | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Indi Strom | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Georgie Brisbane | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 25 |
| Holly Egan | FB | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Noa McNaughton | INT | 27 | 17 to 37 | 3 to 50 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbie McKay | R | 85 | 71 to 100 | 50 to 120 | 77% | 59% | 39% | 24% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 83 | 69 to 98 | 48 to 118 | 73% | 55% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Dayna Finn | WL | 82 | 68 to 97 | 48 to 117 | 72% | 52% | 33% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 79 | 65 to 93 | 45 to 113 | 66% | 48% | 33% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | HFFL | 79 | 65 to 93 | 45 to 113 | 65% | 47% | 33% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 64 | 51 to 77 | 32 to 96 | 37% | 22% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Keeley Sherar | FPR | 59 | 47 to 72 | 29 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Sophie McKay | WR | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFR | 52 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 52 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Amelia Velardo | CHB | 52 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19 |
| Brooke Boileau | HFFR | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16 |
| Lila Keck | INT | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Yasmin Duursma | INT | 40 | 29 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Tara Bohanna | INT | 38 | 27 to 49 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17 |
| Gabriella Pound | INT | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 28 |
| Siofra O'Connell | HBFL | 33 | 22 to 43 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |