AFLW · ROUND 3 · COCKBURN ARC OVAL
Fremantle v Carlton
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 3
CAR to win, 55% chance
FRE 45%55% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 6
HIT Actual margin 6 · 3.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiara Bowers | C | 10.5 | 8.0 to 13.0 | 5.0 to 15.9 | 100% | 100% | 97% | 91% | 85% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.5 | 2.3 to 10.9 | 91% | 84% | 72% | 61% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Mim Strom | RK | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.6 to 9.5 | 85% | 73% | 60% | 49% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Aisling McCarthy | R | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 32% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | HBFR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.7 | 56% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 53% | 37% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 64% | 46% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Emma O'Driscoll | BPL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 45% | 24% | 13% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | WL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Aoife Healy | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Indiana West | CHB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 28% | 14% | 8% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jessica Low | HBFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 43% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 45% | 24% | 10% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgie Brisbane | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Holly Egan | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 15% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Noa McNaughton | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bella Smith | FPR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Indi Strom | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 25% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbie McKay | R | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.6 to 9.7 | 85% | 74% | 64% | 49% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 74% | 56% | 45% | 31% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | HFFL | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | FPR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.7 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brooke Boileau | HFFR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 71% | 53% | 40% | 24% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WL | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 56% | 45% | 27% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 39% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lila Keck | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Gabriella Pound | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 53% | 32% | 16% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | CHB | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 52% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 50% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sophie McKay | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 32% | 19% | 9% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 37% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 37% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 30% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tara Bohanna | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 21% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |