AFLW · ROUND 3 · CORROBOREE GROUP OVAL MANUKA
GWS GIANTS v Port Adelaide
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 21
PA to win, 81% chance
GWS 19%81% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 4
HIT Actual margin 4 · 17.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyce Parker | C | 23.5 | 19.8 to 27.1 | 14.5 to 32.4 | 95% | 77% | 42% | 15% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 19.6 | 16.2 to 23.0 | 11.3 to 27.9 | 84% | 50% | 17% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | CHB | 19.4 | 16.0 to 22.7 | 11.1 to 27.7 | 82% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 16.8 | 13.6 to 20.0 | 9.0 to 24.6 | 64% | 26% | 7% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | HFFL | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.8 | 8.2 to 23.4 | 59% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 15.1 | 12.0 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.5 | 53% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Brodee Mowbray | WR | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.1 | 6.1 to 20.3 | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Emily Pease | INT | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.1 | 6.1 to 20.3 | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Tarni Evans | FF | 12.7 | 9.8 to 15.5 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Alicia Eva | FPR | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.3 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Sara Howley | INT | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.1 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Grace Martin | HBFR | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Poppy Boltz | FB | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.3 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Mikayla Pauga | INT | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.5 | 2.9 to 15.1 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Kiera Yerbury | INT | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.2 | 2.8 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.6 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jessica Doyle | CHF | 8.1 | 5.8 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Grace Kos | R | 8.0 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Caitlin Fletcher | BPL | 6.7 | 4.5 to 8.9 | 1.3 to 12.1 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Isabel Huntington | INT | 6.7 | 4.5 to 8.9 | 1.3 to 12.2 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 21.6 | 18.1 to 25.1 | 12.9 to 30.3 | 91% | 65% | 28% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | R | 19.7 | 16.3 to 23.1 | 11.4 to 28.0 | 84% | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 18.6 | 15.3 to 21.9 | 10.5 to 26.8 | 77% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Ella Heads | HBFL | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.4 to 23.7 | 61% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Maria Moloney | RR | 14.6 | 11.6 to 17.6 | 7.2 to 22.0 | 50% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Molly Brooksby | WR | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.5 to 20.9 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Ella Boag | WL | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.3 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Shineah Goody | INT | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Sachi Syme | HBFR | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Teagan Germech | BPL | 11.3 | 8.6 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Indy Tahau | FF | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.7 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Piper Window | HFFR | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Katelyn Pope | INT | 9.8 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.5 to 16.1 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Gemma Houghton | INT | 9.6 | 7.0 to 12.1 | 3.3 to 15.8 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lauren Young | FPR | 9.1 | 6.6 to 11.5 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | HFFL | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ebony O'Dea | CHB | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.8 to 13.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | 7.2 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.6 to 12.8 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | INT | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Emily Elkington | CHF | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Olivia Crane | INT | 6.2 | 4.0 to 8.3 | 0.9 to 11.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |