AFLW · ROUND 3 · CORROBOREE GROUP OVAL MANUKA
GWS GIANTS v Port Adelaide
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 21
PA to win, 81% chance
GWS 19%81% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 4
HIT Actual margin 4 · 17.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyce Parker | C | 89 | 74 to 104 | 54 to 125 | 81% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 74 | 60 to 88 | 41 to 107 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | CHB | 72 | 58 to 85 | 39 to 104 | 53% | 35% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 65 | 52 to 78 | 33 to 97 | 38% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | HFFL | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Brodee Mowbray | WR | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 60 | 47 to 72 | 29 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Tarni Evans | FF | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Emily Pease | INT | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23 |
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 52 | 40 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 50 | 38 to 63 | 21 to 80 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Alicia Eva | FPR | 47 | 35 to 59 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Sara Howley | INT | 43 | 32 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Grace Martin | HBFR | 41 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Jessica Doyle | CHF | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Grace Kos | R | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Mikayla Pauga | INT | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Kiera Yerbury | INT | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Poppy Boltz | FB | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 71 |
| Isabel Huntington | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 6 to 55 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Caitlin Fletcher | BPL | 29 | 19 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 96 | 80 to 111 | 59 to 132 | 87% | 76% | 59% | 40% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 115 |
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 92 | 77 to 107 | 56 to 128 | 84% | 71% | 52% | 33% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | R | 84 | 69 to 98 | 49 to 118 | 74% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Maria Moloney | RR | 71 | 58 to 85 | 38 to 104 | 52% | 34% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Ella Heads | HBFL | 70 | 56 to 83 | 37 to 102 | 49% | 33% | 14% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Shineah Goody | INT | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Molly Brooksby | WR | 60 | 47 to 72 | 29 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Ella Boag | WL | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Piper Window | HFFR | 53 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Indy Tahau | FF | 53 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 14 |
| Sachi Syme | HBFR | 49 | 37 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Gemma Houghton | INT | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1 |
| Lauren Young | FPR | 45 | 33 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 91 |
| Katelyn Pope | INT | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Teagan Germech | BPL | 44 | 32 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | HFFL | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16 |
| Ebony O'Dea | CHB | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Emily Elkington | CHF | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | INT | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 58 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Olivia Crane | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 6 to 55 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 25 |