AFLW · ROUND 3 · CORROBOREE GROUP OVAL MANUKA
GWS GIANTS v Port Adelaide
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 21
PA to win, 81% chance
GWS 19%81% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 4
HIT Actual margin 4 · 17.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 50% | 38% | 20% | 11% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | CHB | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 39% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tarni Evans | FF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 39% | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jessica Doyle | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alyce Parker | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 21% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brodee Mowbray | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Grace Martin | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isabel Huntington | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Poppy Boltz | FB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mikayla Pauga | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alicia Eva | FPR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emily Pease | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Caitlin Fletcher | BPL | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sara Howley | INT | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Grace Kos | R | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kiera Yerbury | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.0 to 7.0 | 58% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ella Heads | HBFL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 46% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ella Boag | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Indy Tahau | FF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 33% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Molly Brooksby | WR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 25% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Gemma Houghton | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lauren Young | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | R | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sachi Syme | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Teagan Germech | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Maria Moloney | RR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 11% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | HFFL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Shineah Goody | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ebony O'Dea | CHB | 1.4 | 0.4 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Crane | INT | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Katelyn Pope | INT | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Emily Elkington | CHF | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Piper Window | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |