AFLW · ROUND 3 · CORROBOREE GROUP OVAL MANUKA
GWS GIANTS v Port Adelaide
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 21
PA to win, 81% chance
GWS 19%81% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 4
HIT Actual margin 4 · 17.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyce Parker | C | 5.8 | 4.0 to 7.6 | 1.7 to 9.9 | 88% | 76% | 64% | 53% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.7 | 79% | 68% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Brodee Mowbray | WR | 4.7 | 3.1 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.4 | 77% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | CHB | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 71% | 56% | 46% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Grace Kos | R | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 65% | 49% | 37% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 64% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tarni Evans | FF | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 62% | 46% | 27% | 13% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Alicia Eva | FPR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 53% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 41% | 24% | 13% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Emily Pease | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mikayla Pauga | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 57% | 38% | 24% | 8% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sara Howley | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 56% | 35% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Kiera Yerbury | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 30% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Caitlin Fletcher | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jessica Doyle | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Poppy Boltz | FB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Grace Martin | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isabel Huntington | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maria Moloney | RR | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 1.9 to 10.2 | 91% | 79% | 71% | 56% | 46% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 6.0 | 4.1 to 7.8 | 1.9 to 10.1 | 88% | 77% | 68% | 53% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | R | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.7 to 9.7 | 85% | 74% | 64% | 49% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Shineah Goody | INT | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.5 to 9.4 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 49% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Ella Heads | HBFL | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 74% | 57% | 47% | 32% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Piper Window | HFFR | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.3 | 75% | 60% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ella Boag | WL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Molly Brooksby | WR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 17% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Emily Elkington | CHF | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 49% | 30% | 14% | 7% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Katelyn Pope | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 49% | 30% | 14% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lauren Young | FPR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | HFFL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 38% | 19% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ebony O'Dea | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Indy Tahau | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 16% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sachi Syme | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Teagan Germech | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Olivia Crane | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Gemma Houghton | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |