AFLW · ROUND 3 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Geelong Cats
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 19
GEE to win, 78% chance
GCS 22%78% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 7
HIT Actual margin 7 · 11.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | R | 27.4 | 23.5 to 31.3 | 17.8 to 37.0 | 98% | 92% | 69% | 36% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 39.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | HBFL | 21.7 | 18.2 to 25.3 | 13.0 to 30.4 | 92% | 66% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Anne Hatchard | RR | 19.3 | 15.9 to 22.6 | 11.0 to 27.5 | 81% | 44% | 14% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Lucy Single | C | 19.2 | 15.9 to 22.6 | 11.0 to 27.5 | 81% | 43% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Havana Harris | CHF | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 7.0 to 21.7 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 6.9 to 21.5 | 41% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Katie Lynch | CHB | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ava Usher | HFFR | 12.1 | 9.3 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 18.9 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | INT | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.8 | 5.2 to 18.8 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 11.9 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | FB | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.4 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mikayla Nurse | WR | 10.8 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.2 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Bronte Parker | WL | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | INT | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.2 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Alannah Welsh | FF | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.1 | 2.6 to 14.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Mia Salisbury | INT | 8.5 | 6.0 to 10.9 | 2.5 to 14.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Lily Quigley | HFFL | 7.8 | 5.5 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Annabel Kievit | INT | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.0 | 2.0 to 13.4 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Georja Davies | BPL | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.6 | 1.7 to 13.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | FPR | 7.1 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Paige Price | INT | 5.7 | 3.7 to 7.8 | 0.6 to 10.9 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 26.2 | 22.4 to 30.0 | 16.8 to 35.6 | 97% | 88% | 62% | 27% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 21.3 | 17.8 to 24.8 | 12.7 to 29.9 | 90% | 63% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 21.2 | 17.7 to 24.7 | 12.6 to 29.8 | 90% | 63% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.2 | 11.4 to 28.1 | 84% | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Zali Friswell | WR | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 7.0 to 21.7 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Emma Kilpatrick | HBFR | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.6 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.7 | 5.9 to 19.8 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.6 to 19.4 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 11.8 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | CHF | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.7 | 4.4 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | WL | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.1 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Nicola Stevens | INT | 8.7 | 6.3 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Priya Bowering | INT | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Emma Murray | INT | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.7 | 2.4 to 14.2 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 7.2 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.6 to 12.8 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 7.1 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | INT | 6.5 | 4.3 to 8.7 | 1.1 to 11.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |