AFLW · ROUND 3 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Geelong Cats
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 19
GEE to win, 78% chance
GCS 22%78% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 7
HIT Actual margin 7 · 11.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | R | 103 | 88 to 119 | 66 to 141 | 94% | 84% | 72% | 55% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 117 |
| Anne Hatchard | RR | 79 | 64 to 93 | 45 to 113 | 64% | 46% | 32% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 118 |
| Lucy Single | C | 77 | 63 to 91 | 43 to 110 | 61% | 42% | 28% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | HBFL | 75 | 61 to 89 | 42 to 108 | 59% | 40% | 26% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 63 | 50 to 76 | 31 to 94 | 36% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Havana Harris | CHF | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 94 | 32% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Katie Lynch | CHB | 51 | 38 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14 |
| Ava Usher | HFFR | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Alannah Welsh | FF | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | INT | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | FB | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Bronte Parker | WL | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Mikayla Nurse | WR | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Lily Quigley | HFFL | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Annabel Kievit | INT | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 63 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Sunny Lappin | INT | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 31 |
| Mia Salisbury | INT | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 72 |
| Heidi Talbot | FPR | 30 | 20 to 40 | 6 to 55 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 0 |
| Georja Davies | BPL | 30 | 19 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 30 |
| Paige Price | INT | 28 | 18 to 37 | 4 to 51 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 96 | 81 to 111 | 59 to 133 | 88% | 77% | 60% | 41% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 124 |
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 93 | 78 to 108 | 56 to 129 | 84% | 72% | 54% | 35% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 117 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 86 | 72 to 101 | 51 to 121 | 78% | 61% | 41% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 72 | 59 to 86 | 39 to 105 | 55% | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 27 to 87 | 27% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 54 | 42 to 66 | 24 to 84 | 20% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 54 | 42 to 66 | 24 to 84 | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Zali Friswell | WR | 53 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Emma Kilpatrick | HBFR | 53 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | CHF | 53 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 47 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | WL | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Nicola Stevens | INT | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 39 | 28 to 50 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Priya Bowering | INT | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 30 |
| Emma Murray | INT | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 65 |
| Alexis Gregor | INT | 31 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 55 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |