AFLW · ROUND 3 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Geelong Cats
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 19
GEE to win, 78% chance
GCS 22%78% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 7
HIT Actual margin 7 · 11.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Havana Harris | CHF | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 69% | 28% | 15% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Alannah Welsh | FF | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 43% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Anne Hatchard | RR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 39% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ava Usher | HFFR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | FPR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lily Quigley | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 17% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Rowbottom | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Annabel Kievit | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bronte Parker | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georja Davies | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucy Single | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mia Salisbury | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mikayla Nurse | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Paige Price | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Katie Lynch | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 1.3 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 84% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 1.3 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 84% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 1.2 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 73% | 30% | 15% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | CHF | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 56% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 25% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 25% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zali Friswell | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Emma Kilpatrick | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Emma Murray | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nicola Stevens | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Priya Bowering | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |