AFLW · ROUND 3 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Geelong Cats
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 19
GEE to win, 78% chance
GCS 22%78% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 7
HIT Actual margin 7 · 11.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anne Hatchard | RR | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.3 to 7.8 | 61% | 49% | 35% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Havana Harris | CHF | 3.3 | 2.0 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.8 | 54% | 38% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Katie Lynch | CHB | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 52% | 38% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Rowbottom | R | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 46% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | HBFL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 48% | 25% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Lucy Single | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mikayla Nurse | WR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Alannah Welsh | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 11% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lily Quigley | HFFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 11% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bronte Parker | WL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mia Salisbury | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Annabel Kievit | INT | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ava Usher | HFFR | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | FPR | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | INT | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Georja Davies | BPL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Paige Price | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.0 to 7.1 | 58% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 48% | 29% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 46% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 42% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 46% | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 33% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 29% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Emma Kilpatrick | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nicola Stevens | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Zali Friswell | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | INT | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Emma Murray | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Priya Bowering | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |