AFLW · ROUND 3 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Geelong Cats
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 19
GEE to win, 78% chance
GCS 22%78% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 7
HIT Actual margin 7 · 11.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | R | 7.2 | 5.2 to 9.3 | 2.7 to 11.7 | 96% | 88% | 78% | 71% | 56% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lucy Single | C | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.6 to 9.5 | 85% | 73% | 61% | 49% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Anne Hatchard | RR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 74% | 56% | 42% | 31% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 65% | 49% | 37% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 64% | 49% | 31% | 15% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Annabel Kievit | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 50% | 32% | 15% | 9% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Havana Harris | CHF | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 56% | 35% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lily Quigley | HFFL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | FB | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 16% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mikayla Nurse | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 42% | 23% | 9% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Alannah Welsh | FF | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ava Usher | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 37% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Bronte Parker | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 29% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Georja Davies | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Paige Price | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Katie Lynch | CHB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mia Salisbury | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 8.0 | 5.8 to 10.1 | 3.2 to 12.7 | 97% | 92% | 85% | 74% | 65% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 7.0 | 5.0 to 9.1 | 2.6 to 11.5 | 95% | 86% | 77% | 68% | 56% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.6 to 9.4 | 85% | 73% | 60% | 49% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 53% | 32% | 16% | 9% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 49% | 30% | 15% | 8% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Emma Kilpatrick | HBFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zali Friswell | WR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nicola Stevens | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 56% | 37% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | CHF | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Priya Bowering | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 45% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | WL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 17% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 37% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Emma Murray | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 26% | 12% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 19% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | INT | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |