AFLW · ROUND 3 · CASEY FIELDS
Melbourne v Brisbane Lions
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 4
BRI to win, 58% chance
MEL 42%58% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 56
MISS Actual margin 56 · 60.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 24.8 | 21.1 to 28.5 | 15.6 to 34.0 | 96% | 83% | 52% | 20% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Eliza McNamara | WL | 21.4 | 17.9 to 24.9 | 12.7 to 30.0 | 90% | 64% | 27% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Kate Hore | C | 21.2 | 17.7 to 24.7 | 12.6 to 29.8 | 90% | 63% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Tyla Hanks | R | 21.2 | 17.7 to 24.7 | 12.6 to 29.8 | 90% | 63% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Maeve Chaplin | BPL | 15.4 | 12.4 to 18.5 | 7.9 to 22.9 | 56% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | CHB | 14.3 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 7.0 to 21.6 | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | FB | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | HBFR | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.1 | 6.1 to 20.3 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | CHF | 12.9 | 10.0 to 15.7 | 5.9 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Sinead Goldrick | HBFL | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.6 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | FPR | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Tayla Harris | HFFR | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.8 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.1 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | WR | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 17.0 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Lauren Pearce | INT | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFL | 9.1 | 6.6 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.7 | 1.8 to 13.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Laela Ebert | INT | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.7 | 1.8 to 13.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Mia Austin | FF | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 20.7 | 17.3 to 24.2 | 12.2 to 29.2 | 89% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 19.0 | 15.7 to 22.4 | 10.8 to 27.3 | 79% | 42% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jade Ellenger | HBFR | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.4 | 9.4 to 25.1 | 68% | 29% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Sophie Conway | C | 17.1 | 13.9 to 20.3 | 9.2 to 24.9 | 67% | 27% | 7% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Charlotte Mullins | FPR | 16.8 | 13.6 to 20.0 | 9.0 to 24.6 | 64% | 26% | 7% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 7.0 to 21.7 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.4 | 6.3 to 20.6 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.7 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Lily Postlethwaite | WL | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.6 to 19.4 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 12.1 | 9.3 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 18.9 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 11.9 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Marlo Graham | HFFL | 11.8 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.7 | 4.4 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 10.6 | 7.9 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Dakota Davidson | CHF | 9.1 | 6.6 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FF | 7.8 | 5.4 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Shanae Davison | INT | 7.8 | 5.4 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 5.8 | 3.7 to 7.9 | 0.6 to 10.9 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Neasa Dooley | INT | 5.8 | 3.7 to 7.8 | 0.6 to 10.9 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sophie Peters | INT | 5.6 | 3.5 to 7.7 | 0.5 to 10.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |