AFLW · ROUND 3 · CASEY FIELDS
Melbourne v Brisbane Lions
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 4
BRI to win, 58% chance
MEL 42%58% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 56
MISS Actual margin 56 · 60.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 90 | 75 to 104 | 54 to 125 | 81% | 67% | 48% | 30% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Kate Hore | C | 89 | 74 to 104 | 54 to 125 | 81% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Tyla Hanks | R | 84 | 70 to 99 | 50 to 119 | 76% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 107 |
| Eliza McNamara | WL | 78 | 64 to 92 | 44 to 112 | 63% | 45% | 30% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Maeve Chaplin | BPL | 63 | 50 to 76 | 32 to 95 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Jordyn Allen | CHB | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | CHF | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 86 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Tayla Harris | HFFR | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Tahlia Gillard | FB | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 91 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 84 | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 91 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 53 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFL | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 108 |
| Sinead Goldrick | HBFL | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Lauren Pearce | INT | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 13% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Alyssa Bannan | FPR | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Sarah Lampard | HBFR | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Molly O'Hehir | WR | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 31 |
| Mia Austin | FF | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 35 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Laela Ebert | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 4 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 59 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 83 | 69 to 98 | 48 to 118 | 73% | 55% | 35% | 20% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 71 | 58 to 85 | 38 to 104 | 52% | 34% | 18% | 9% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Sophie Conway | C | 70 | 56 to 83 | 37 to 102 | 50% | 33% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Jade Ellenger | HBFR | 67 | 54 to 80 | 35 to 99 | 41% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Charlotte Mullins | FPR | 66 | 53 to 80 | 34 to 98 | 41% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 63 | 50 to 76 | 32 to 95 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 62 | 50 to 76 | 31 to 94 | 35% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 53 | 41 to 65 | 24 to 83 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14 |
| Lily Postlethwaite | WL | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 47 | 35 to 59 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Marlo Graham | HFFL | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16 |
| Dakota Davidson | CHF | 46 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 44 | 32 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FF | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 63 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Shanae Davison | INT | 32 | 22 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 30 |
| Neasa Dooley | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3 |
| Sophie Peters | INT | 26 | 17 to 36 | 3 to 50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 51 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 26 | 16 to 36 | 3 to 50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |