AFLW · ROUND 3 · CASEY FIELDS
Melbourne v Brisbane Lions
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 4
BRI to win, 58% chance
MEL 42%58% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 56
MISS Actual margin 56 · 60.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Hore | C | 1.3 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 84% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mia Austin | FF | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 40% | 17% | 5% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 43% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tayla Harris | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 43% | 17% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | FPR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 29% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 39% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Eliza McNamara | WL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | CHF | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tyla Hanks | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laela Ebert | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lauren Pearce | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Maeve Chaplin | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sinead Goldrick | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dakota Davidson | CHF | 0.9 | 0.6 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 57% | 22% | 10% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 43% | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlotte Mullins | FPR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Neasa Dooley | INT | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 19% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FF | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 17% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sophie Conway | C | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 36% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 13% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Marlo Graham | HFFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lily Postlethwaite | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Shanae Davison | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Peters | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jade Ellenger | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |