AFLW · ROUND 3 · CASEY FIELDS
Melbourne v Brisbane Lions
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 4
BRI to win, 58% chance
MEL 42%58% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 56
MISS Actual margin 56 · 60.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 24.8 / inside our 90% range: 32.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 5.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 90 / inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Eliza McNamara | WL | 21.4 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.3 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 78 / inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Kate Hore | C | 21.2 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 89 / inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Tyla Hanks | R | 21.2 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 6.3 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 84 / inside our 90% range: 107 |
| Maeve Chaplin | BPL | 15.4 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 63 / inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Jordyn Allen | CHB | 14.3 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.7 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Tahlia Gillard | FB | 13.8 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 55 / outside our 90% range: 91 |
| Sarah Lampard | HBFR | 13.2 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 47 / inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | CHF | 12.9 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.3 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 55 / inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Sinead Goldrick | HBFL | 12.8 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 11.8 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 4.6 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 55 / outside our 90% range: 91 |
| Alyssa Bannan | FPR | 11.3 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Tayla Harris | HFFR | 11.2 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 55 / inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 10.8 / outside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 53 / inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 10.6 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.0 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 43 / inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Molly O'Hehir | WR | 10.5 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 42 / inside our 50% range: 31 |
| Lauren Pearce | INT | 9.1 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 49 / inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFL | 9.1 / outside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.8 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 3.1 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 50 / outside our 90% range: 108 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 7.4 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 0.4 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 35 / inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Laela Ebert | INT | 7.4 / outside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.5 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 29 / outside our 90% range: 59 |
| Mia Austin | FF | 6.6 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.8 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 37 / inside our 50% range: 38 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 20.7 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 5.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 83 / inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 19.0 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 71 / inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Jade Ellenger | HBFR | 17.3 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 67 / inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Sophie Conway | C | 17.1 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Charlotte Mullins | FPR | 16.8 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 14.4 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 58 / inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 13.5 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 6.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 63 / inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 12.8 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Lily Postlethwaite | WL | 12.5 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 12.1 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 44 / inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 11.9 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 47 / inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Marlo Graham | HFFL | 11.8 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 46 / outside our 90% range: 16 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 11.0 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.0 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 49 / outside our 90% range: 14 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 10.6 / outside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 9.9 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 44 / inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Dakota Davidson | CHF | 9.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 0.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.7 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 46 / inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FF | 7.8 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 37 / inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Shanae Davison | INT | 7.8 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 32 / inside our 50% range: 30 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 5.8 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 26 / inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Neasa Dooley | INT | 5.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 29 / outside our 90% range: 3 |
| Sophie Peters | INT | 5.6 / outside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 26 / outside our 90% range: 51 |