AFLW · ROUND 3 · CASEY FIELDS
Melbourne v Brisbane Lions
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 4
BRI to win, 58% chance
MEL 42%58% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 56
MISS Actual margin 56 · 60.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyla Hanks | R | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.2 | 2.1 to 10.5 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 5.2 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.4 to 9.1 | 84% | 71% | 56% | 40% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 74% | 57% | 46% | 32% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Kate Hore | C | 4.2 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | CHF | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 60% | 41% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Eliza McNamara | WL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 48% | 31% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 10% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | FPR | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | CHB | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 57% | 38% | 23% | 8% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Maeve Chaplin | BPL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 56% | 37% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sinead Goldrick | HBFL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 56% | 37% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tayla Harris | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 37% | 23% | 8% | 5% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | FB | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | WR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lauren Pearce | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mia Austin | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | HBFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Laela Ebert | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catherine Svarc | R | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.1 | 2.0 to 10.4 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.7 | 1.8 to 10.0 | 88% | 77% | 65% | 53% | 43% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sophie Conway | C | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 28% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jade Ellenger | HBFR | 3.7 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 71% | 53% | 32% | 23% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 65% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 71% | 52% | 32% | 19% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlotte Mullins | FPR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 57% | 38% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Marlo Graham | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sophie Peters | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lily Postlethwaite | WL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dakota Davidson | CHF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Neasa Dooley | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Shanae Davison | INT | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 13% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |