AFLW · ROUND 3 · UTAS STADIUM
North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
Sat 29 Aug 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 22
NM to win, 82% chance
NM 82%18% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 47
HIT Actual margin 47 · 25.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ash Riddell | RR | 29.9 | 25.8 to 33.9 | 19.9 to 39.8 | 99% | 96% | 82% | 53% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 32.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 28.9 | 24.9 to 32.9 | 19.1 to 38.7 | 99% | 95% | 78% | 45% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Emma Kearney | HBFL | 17.1 | 13.9 to 20.3 | 9.2 to 25.0 | 67% | 27% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 15.3 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.8 to 22.9 | 54% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Libby Birch | BPL | 14.4 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.8 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | C | 12.8 | 9.9 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | HBFR | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.1 | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 12.1 | 9.3 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 18.9 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Bella Eddey | INT | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.8 | 5.2 to 18.8 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jenna Bruton | HFFR | 11.8 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Claire Mahony | CHB | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.4 | 5.0 to 18.4 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.1 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Kate Shierlaw | FPR | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | INT | 10.0 | 7.4 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.3 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Tessa Boyd | INT | 9.0 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Abby Favell | WL | 8.0 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Emma King | INT | 7.3 | 5.1 to 9.6 | 1.7 to 13.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 23.2 | 19.6 to 26.8 | 14.3 to 32.1 | 95% | 76% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | R | 20.8 | 17.4 to 24.3 | 12.3 to 29.4 | 89% | 61% | 24% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Mikala Cann | RR | 16.6 | 13.4 to 19.7 | 8.8 to 24.3 | 67% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | CHB | 15.5 | 12.5 to 18.6 | 8.0 to 23.1 | 57% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Elle Bennetts | HBFL | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.4 to 22.3 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | WR | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 11.8 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | INT | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Elisabeth Georgostathis | INT | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 10.9 | 8.2 to 13.6 | 4.3 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFR | 9.8 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Lauren Ahrens | BPL | 9.8 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.5 to 16.1 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sarah Poustie | INT | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.2 | 3.4 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.1 | 3.4 to 15.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Emma McDonald | FF | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | INT | 8.0 | 5.7 to 10.4 | 2.2 to 13.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Kaylee Kimber | FB | 7.9 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.1 to 13.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | INT | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.7 | 1.8 to 13.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Keeley Hardingham | FPR | 5.7 | 3.6 to 7.8 | 0.6 to 10.8 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |