AFLW · ROUND 3 · UTAS STADIUM
North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
Sat 29 Aug 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 22
NM to win, 82% chance
NM 82%18% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 47
HIT Actual margin 47 · 25.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Garner | R | 115 | 99 to 131 | 76 to 154 | 98% | 94% | 85% | 74% | 58% | inside our 50% range: 120 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 109 | 93 to 125 | 71 to 148 | 96% | 90% | 80% | 65% | 47% | inside our 50% range: 115 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 63 | 50 to 76 | 31 to 94 | 36% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 94 | 32% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Emma Kearney | HBFL | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Ruby Tripodi | C | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Libby Birch | BPL | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 53 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Jenna Bruton | HFFR | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | INT | 49 | 38 to 61 | 21 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Bella Eddey | INT | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Eliza Shannon | HBFR | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 47 | 35 to 59 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14 |
| Claire Mahony | CHB | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Kate Shierlaw | FPR | 44 | 32 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 79 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Emma King | INT | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Tessa Boyd | INT | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 63 |
| Abby Favell | WL | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 87 | 73 to 102 | 52 to 123 | 79% | 63% | 44% | 28% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | R | 77 | 63 to 91 | 43 to 111 | 61% | 43% | 29% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 67 | 54 to 81 | 35 to 100 | 42% | 27% | 14% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Mikala Cann | RR | 67 | 53 to 80 | 34 to 99 | 41% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Elle Bennetts | HBFL | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Britney Gutknecht | CHB | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Elisabeth Georgostathis | INT | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Emma McDonald | FF | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Rylie Wilcox | INT | 48 | 37 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Sarah Poustie | INT | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Dominique Carruthers | WR | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFR | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Lauren Ahrens | BPL | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Kaylee Kimber | FB | 33 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 58 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Cleo Buttifant | INT | 32 | 22 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | INT | 32 | 22 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 60 |
| Keeley Hardingham | FPR | 31 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 55 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 27 |