AFLW · ROUND 3 · UTAS STADIUM
North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
Sat 29 Aug 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 22
NM to win, 82% chance
NM 82%18% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 47
HIT Actual margin 47 · 25.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 69% | 30% | 15% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 56% | 20% | 9% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 64% | 20% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 64% | 20% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | INT | 0.6 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 43% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Kate Shierlaw | FPR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 45% | 20% | 7% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 25% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emma King | INT | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 43% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jenna Bruton | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 25% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bella Eddey | INT | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 39% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Abby Favell | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Claire Mahony | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Emma Kearney | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tessa Boyd | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Libby Birch | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 0.8 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 43% | 20% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Emma McDonald | FF | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 56% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 39% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 43% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Keeley Hardingham | FPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mikala Cann | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Poustie | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Elisabeth Georgostathis | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Elle Bennetts | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kaylee Kimber | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lauren Ahrens | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |