AFLW · ROUND 3 · UTAS STADIUM
North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
Sat 29 Aug 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 22
NM to win, 82% chance
NM 82%18% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 47
HIT Actual margin 47 · 25.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Garner | R | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.1 | 2.0 to 10.4 | 91% | 82% | 71% | 56% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | C | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 79% | 65% | 49% | 32% | 24% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 59% | 46% | 29% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 28% | 14% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 32% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jenna Bruton | HFFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 21% | 10% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 22% | 10% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bella Eddey | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 45% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Abby Favell | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 26% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Libby Birch | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Claire Mahony | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kate Shierlaw | FPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Emma Kearney | HBFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tessa Boyd | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Emma King | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.6 | 78% | 65% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Sarah Poustie | INT | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 79% | 65% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mikala Cann | RR | 4.7 | 3.1 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.4 | 77% | 62% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.9 | 77% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | R | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 71% | 53% | 39% | 24% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | WR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 65% | 46% | 29% | 14% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 49% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 46% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Elisabeth Georgostathis | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 49% | 31% | 16% | 8% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emma McDonald | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 17% | 11% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Keeley Hardingham | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 37% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lauren Ahrens | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Elle Bennetts | HBFL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kaylee Kimber | FB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |