AFLW · ROUND 3 · C.EX COFFS INTERNATIONAL STADIUM
Sydney Swans v St Kilda
Sat 29 Aug 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 18
SYD to win, 78% chance
SYD 78%22% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 23
HIT Actual margin 23 · 5.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | HFFR | 26.7 | 22.9 to 30.6 | 17.2 to 36.2 | 98% | 90% | 65% | 31% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Sofia Hurley | R | 20.5 | 17.1 to 24.0 | 12.0 to 29.0 | 88% | 57% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFR | 19.4 | 16.1 to 22.8 | 11.1 to 27.7 | 82% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 18.8 | 15.5 to 22.1 | 10.6 to 27.0 | 78% | 40% | 13% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Montana Ham | RR | 17.8 | 14.6 to 21.1 | 9.8 to 25.8 | 72% | 32% | 10% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | C | 17.4 | 14.2 to 20.6 | 9.5 to 25.3 | 69% | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | CHF | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.9 | 8.2 to 23.5 | 60% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Darcy Moloney | HBFL | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | FF | 12.0 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.2 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | FPR | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.8 | 3.9 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | WR | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.2 | 3.4 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | INT | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Imogen Brown | WL | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Brenna Tarrant | BPL | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.3 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 7.9 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.1 to 13.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | FB | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.8 to 13.2 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | HFFL | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.7 | 1.8 to 13.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Caitlin Reid | INT | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Emma Juneja | INT | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Molly Thomas | INT | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.7 | 1.2 to 11.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Patrikios | C | 23.4 | 19.8 to 27.1 | 14.5 to 32.4 | 95% | 77% | 42% | 14% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Tyanna Smith | R | 20.4 | 17.0 to 23.9 | 12.0 to 28.9 | 87% | 56% | 22% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 18.0 | 14.8 to 21.3 | 10.0 to 26.1 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.5 | 9.4 to 25.2 | 69% | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Alana Gee | WL | 14.0 | 11.0 to 16.9 | 6.7 to 21.2 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 13.0 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 5.9 to 20.0 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 12.2 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 12.1 | 9.3 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 18.9 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 12.0 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.2 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Alice Burke | HBFR | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.6 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Olivia Vesely | INT | 9.9 | 7.3 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.1 | 3.4 to 15.8 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.8 to 15.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | CHF | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.7 | 2.4 to 14.2 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Abby Hobson | FPR | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.0 | 2.0 to 13.4 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jade McLay | INT | 5.4 | 3.3 to 7.4 | 0.4 to 10.3 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | INT | 5.4 | 3.3 to 7.4 | 0.4 to 10.3 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 5.3 | 3.3 to 7.3 | 0.3 to 10.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Sophie Butterworth | INT | 5.1 | 3.1 to 7.1 | 0.2 to 10.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |