AFLW · ROUND 3 · C.EX COFFS INTERNATIONAL STADIUM
Sydney Swans v St Kilda
Sat 29 Aug 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 18
SYD to win, 78% chance
SYD 78%22% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 23
HIT Actual margin 23 · 5.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | HFFR | 115 | 99 to 131 | 76 to 154 | 98% | 94% | 85% | 74% | 58% | inside our 90% range: 95 |
| Sofia Hurley | R | 88 | 73 to 103 | 53 to 124 | 80% | 64% | 45% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 88 | 73 to 103 | 52 to 123 | 80% | 64% | 45% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFR | 79 | 65 to 93 | 45 to 113 | 65% | 47% | 33% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Montana Ham | RR | 78 | 64 to 92 | 44 to 112 | 63% | 45% | 30% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Lucy McEvoy | C | 75 | 61 to 89 | 42 to 109 | 59% | 40% | 26% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Chloe Molloy | CHF | 69 | 55 to 82 | 36 to 101 | 44% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | FF | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Maddie Quinn | FPR | 49 | 37 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Darcy Moloney | HBFL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 77 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | WR | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Imogen Brown | WL | 43 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 31 |
| Lara Hausegger | INT | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Brenna Tarrant | BPL | 38 | 27 to 49 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Ash Van Loon | FB | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Paris McCarthy | HFFL | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 28 |
| Caitlin Reid | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6 |
| Emma Juneja | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 72 |
| Molly Thomas | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Patrikios | C | 86 | 71 to 100 | 51 to 121 | 78% | 60% | 40% | 25% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Tyanna Smith | R | 85 | 71 to 100 | 50 to 120 | 77% | 59% | 39% | 24% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 71 | 57 to 84 | 38 to 103 | 50% | 33% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 66 | 53 to 79 | 34 to 98 | 41% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 60 | 47 to 72 | 29 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Alana Gee | WL | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 22 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 54 | 42 to 66 | 24 to 84 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Alice Burke | HBFR | 52 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 47 | 35 to 59 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Olivia Vesely | INT | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Darcy Guttridge | CHF | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Abby Hobson | FPR | 32 | 22 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9 |
| Sophie Butterworth | INT | 27 | 17 to 37 | 3 to 51 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19 |
| Jade McLay | INT | 27 | 17 to 36 | 3 to 50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | INT | 27 | 17 to 36 | 3 to 50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 26 | 17 to 36 | 3 to 50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17 |