AFLW · ROUND 3 · C.EX COFFS INTERNATIONAL STADIUM
Sydney Swans v St Kilda
Sat 29 Aug 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 18
SYD to win, 78% chance
SYD 78%22% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 23
HIT Actual margin 23 · 5.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chloe Molloy | CHF | 1.5 | 1.0 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 100% | 39% | 20% | 11% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | FF | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 47% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Gardiner | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 48% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | FPR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 39% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 30% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Montana Ham | RR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 39% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 29% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sofia Hurley | R | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caitlin Reid | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Moloney | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Emma Juneja | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Imogen Brown | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Molly Thomas | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brenna Tarrant | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 66% | 25% | 13% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 43% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | CHF | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 39% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Abby Hobson | FPR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tyanna Smith | R | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Vesely | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Butterworth | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alana Gee | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jade McLay | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alice Burke | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |