AFLW · ROUND 3 · C.EX COFFS INTERNATIONAL STADIUM
Sydney Swans v St Kilda
Sat 29 Aug 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 18
SYD to win, 78% chance
SYD 78%22% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 23
HIT Actual margin 23 · 5.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ally Morphett | RK | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.9 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | CHF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 46% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Laura Gardiner | HFFR | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 47% | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Montana Ham | RR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 46% | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | C | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 26% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Brenna Tarrant | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sofia Hurley | R | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | FF | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Moloney | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | FPR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | FB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | HFFL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Imogen Brown | WL | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Caitlin Reid | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emma Juneja | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | WR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Molly Thomas | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 54% | 38% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | C | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 48% | 26% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Alice Burke | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alana Gee | WL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | CHF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tyanna Smith | R | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 13% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Olivia Vesely | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Abby Hobson | FPR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Butterworth | INT | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jade McLay | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |