AFLW · ROUND 4 · BRIGHTON HOMES ARENA
Brisbane Lions v GWS GIANTS
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 6:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 27
BRI to win, 87% chance
BRI 87%13% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 31
HIT Actual margin 31 · 4.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 22.0 | 18.5 to 25.5 | 13.3 to 30.7 | 92% | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 20.0 | 16.6 to 23.4 | 11.6 to 28.3 | 85% | 53% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Charlotte Mullins | FPR | 18.8 | 15.5 to 22.1 | 10.6 to 27.0 | 78% | 40% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Jade Ellenger | HBFR | 18.5 | 15.2 to 21.8 | 10.4 to 26.7 | 77% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Sophie Conway | C | 18.0 | 14.7 to 21.2 | 10.0 to 26.0 | 74% | 33% | 10% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.9 | 8.2 to 23.4 | 60% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 14.2 | 11.2 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.5 | 41% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 14.1 | 11.2 to 17.0 | 6.8 to 21.4 | 40% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Lily Postlethwaite | WL | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.8 to 21.2 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.1 to 20.2 | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 5.9 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 12.0 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.2 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 10.7 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.1 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Shanae Davison | HFFL | 9.7 | 7.1 to 12.2 | 3.4 to 15.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Dakota Davidson | CHF | 8.7 | 6.3 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Claudia Wright | FF | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.5 to 14.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Sophie Peters | INT | 8.0 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Evie Long | HFFR | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.7 | 1.8 to 13.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 6.3 | 4.2 to 8.5 | 1.0 to 11.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Madison Evans | INT | 6.3 | 4.2 to 8.5 | 1.0 to 11.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 5.7 | 3.6 to 7.8 | 0.6 to 10.8 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyce Parker | C | 23.7 | 20.1 to 27.4 | 14.7 to 32.8 | 96% | 78% | 43% | 16% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 20.3 | 16.9 to 23.7 | 11.9 to 28.8 | 87% | 56% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | CHB | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.2 | 11.5 to 28.2 | 84% | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 16.8 | 13.6 to 19.9 | 9.0 to 24.6 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 15.5 | 12.5 to 18.6 | 8.0 to 23.1 | 57% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | HFFL | 14.9 | 11.9 to 18.0 | 7.5 to 22.4 | 52% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Emily Pease | INT | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 32% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Brodee Mowbray | WR | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.6 to 19.4 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Tarni Evans | FF | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Poppy Boltz | FB | 11.3 | 8.6 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Sara Howley | INT | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Grace Martin | HBFR | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 3.9 to 16.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Alicia Eva | FPR | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Mikayla Pauga | INT | 9.1 | 6.6 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Grace Kos | R | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Isabel Huntington | INT | 7.6 | 5.3 to 10.0 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jessica Doyle | CHF | 7.3 | 5.1 to 9.6 | 1.7 to 13.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Caitlin Fletcher | BPL | 6.5 | 4.3 to 8.7 | 1.1 to 11.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Georgia Clark | INT | 5.4 | 3.4 to 7.4 | 0.4 to 10.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |