AFLW · ROUND 4 · BRIGHTON HOMES ARENA
Brisbane Lions v GWS GIANTS
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 6:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 27
BRI to win, 87% chance
BRI 87%13% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 31
HIT Actual margin 31 · 4.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 89 | 74 to 104 | 53 to 124 | 80% | 66% | 46% | 29% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 76 | 62 to 90 | 43 to 110 | 60% | 41% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Sophie Conway | C | 75 | 61 to 89 | 41 to 108 | 58% | 40% | 25% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 72 | 58 to 86 | 39 to 105 | 54% | 37% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Charlotte Mullins | FPR | 72 | 58 to 86 | 39 to 105 | 54% | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 71 | 58 to 85 | 38 to 104 | 52% | 34% | 17% | 9% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Jade Ellenger | HBFR | 71 | 57 to 84 | 38 to 103 | 50% | 33% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 57 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 27% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Lily Postlethwaite | WL | 54 | 42 to 67 | 24 to 84 | 20% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Dakota Davidson | CHF | 51 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Shanae Davison | HFFL | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Claudia Wright | FF | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 27 |
| Evie Long | HFFR | 35 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 26 |
| Sophie Peters | INT | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 27 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 31 | 21 to 42 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 27 |
| Madison Evans | INT | 31 | 21 to 42 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyce Parker | C | 88 | 73 to 102 | 52 to 123 | 79% | 63% | 44% | 28% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 115 |
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 74 | 60 to 88 | 41 to 107 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | CHB | 70 | 57 to 84 | 38 to 103 | 50% | 33% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | HFFL | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Brodee Mowbray | WR | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Tarni Evans | FF | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Emily Pease | INT | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 15 |
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Alicia Eva | FPR | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Sara Howley | INT | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Poppy Boltz | FB | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Grace Kos | R | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 30 |
| Grace Martin | HBFR | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8 |
| Jessica Doyle | CHF | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Mikayla Pauga | INT | 36 | 26 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Isabel Huntington | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 25 |
| Caitlin Fletcher | BPL | 27 | 17 to 37 | 3 to 51 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 31 |
| Georgia Clark | INT | 24 | 15 to 34 | 1 to 47 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |