AFLW · ROUND 4 · BRIGHTON HOMES ARENA
Brisbane Lions v GWS GIANTS
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 6:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 27
BRI to win, 87% chance
BRI 87%13% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 31
HIT Actual margin 31 · 4.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dakota Davidson | CHF | 1.5 | 1.0 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 85% | 39% | 20% | 11% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlotte Mullins | FPR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 43% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 25% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sophie Conway | C | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 52% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 30% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 39% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Claudia Wright | FF | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Evie Long | HFFR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Shanae Davison | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lily Postlethwaite | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madison Evans | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Peters | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 21% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jade Ellenger | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarni Evans | FF | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 43% | 20% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 46% | 20% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jessica Doyle | CHF | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 44% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alicia Eva | FPR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 26% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brodee Mowbray | WR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 27% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alyce Parker | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Emily Pease | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Clark | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Kos | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isabel Huntington | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mikayla Pauga | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sara Howley | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caitlin Fletcher | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Martin | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Poppy Boltz | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |