AFLW · ROUND 4 · BRIGHTON HOMES ARENA
Brisbane Lions v GWS GIANTS
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 6:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 27
BRI to win, 87% chance
BRI 87%13% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 31
HIT Actual margin 31 · 4.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catherine Svarc | R | 6.0 | 4.2 to 7.9 | 1.9 to 10.2 | 89% | 78% | 70% | 56% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.7 | 1.8 to 10.0 | 88% | 77% | 65% | 53% | 41% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Sophie Conway | C | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 71% | 53% | 38% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jade Ellenger | HBFR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 65% | 49% | 37% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 65% | 49% | 37% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 70% | 50% | 32% | 19% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Charlotte Mullins | FPR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 37% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 61% | 42% | 24% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Evie Long | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lily Postlethwaite | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 37% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Madison Evans | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sophie Peters | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 19% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dakota Davidson | CHF | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Claudia Wright | FF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 29% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Shanae Davison | HFFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 13% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyce Parker | C | 5.3 | 3.6 to 7.1 | 1.4 to 9.2 | 85% | 72% | 56% | 40% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 4.7 | 3.1 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.4 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Brodee Mowbray | WR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 6.9 | 69% | 49% | 32% | 16% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Grace Kos | R | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 65% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | CHB | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 61% | 46% | 31% | 15% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 32% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tarni Evans | FF | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 9% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alicia Eva | FPR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 64% | 46% | 25% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | HFFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 64% | 46% | 24% | 13% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 42% | 24% | 13% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 56% | 37% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mikayla Pauga | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 39% | 23% | 9% | 5% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sara Howley | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 43% | 23% | 9% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Emily Pease | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 37% | 19% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Poppy Boltz | FB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 27% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Caitlin Fletcher | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 27% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Clark | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Grace Martin | HBFR | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jessica Doyle | CHF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Isabel Huntington | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |