AFLW · ROUND 4 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Collingwood
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 32
CAR to win, 90% chance
CAR 90%10% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 39
HIT Actual margin 39 · 6.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbie McKay | R | 24.9 | 21.2 to 28.6 | 15.7 to 34.1 | 96% | 83% | 53% | 21% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 24.3 | 20.6 to 28.0 | 15.2 to 33.4 | 96% | 81% | 48% | 18% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WL | 22.5 | 18.9 to 26.0 | 13.6 to 31.3 | 93% | 71% | 35% | 10% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 21.8 | 18.2 to 25.3 | 13.1 to 30.5 | 92% | 66% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | WR | 20.8 | 17.3 to 24.2 | 12.2 to 29.3 | 89% | 60% | 23% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFL | 15.7 | 12.6 to 18.7 | 8.1 to 23.2 | 58% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | BPL | 15.3 | 12.2 to 18.3 | 7.7 to 22.8 | 54% | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | CHB | 13.8 | 10.8 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.5 to 20.9 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFR | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.1 | 6.1 to 20.3 | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 13.1 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Lila Keck | HFFR | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | HBFL | 9.8 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | INT | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Tara Bohanna | FPR | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | INT | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.7 | 2.4 to 14.2 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Brooke Boileau | INT | 8.2 | 5.8 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 7.9 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.1 to 13.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Aisling Reidy | INT | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 22.3 | 18.7 to 25.9 | 13.5 to 31.1 | 93% | 70% | 34% | 10% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 19.1 | 15.8 to 22.5 | 10.9 to 27.4 | 80% | 43% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Tarni White | WL | 17.6 | 14.4 to 20.8 | 9.6 to 25.6 | 70% | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Brianna Davey | C | 15.3 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.8 to 22.8 | 54% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Carly Remmos | HFFR | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.7 to 19.7 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | FB | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.6 to 19.5 | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Ruby Schleicher | CHF | 11.9 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Kalinda Howarth | HBFL | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Lucille Cronin | FPR | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Violet Patterson | FF | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | HBFR | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.7 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | CHB | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | R | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mischa Barwin | HFFL | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | RK | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.8 to 13.2 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Charlotte Brewer | INT | 6.0 | 3.8 to 8.1 | 0.8 to 11.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 5.4 | 3.4 to 7.5 | 0.4 to 10.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Eliza James | INT | 5.3 | 3.3 to 7.3 | 0.3 to 10.3 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Georgia Knight | INT | 4.7 | 2.8 to 6.6 | 0.0 to 9.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |