AFLW · ROUND 4 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Collingwood
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 32
CAR to win, 90% chance
CAR 90%10% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 39
HIT Actual margin 39 · 6.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbie McKay | R | 90 | 75 to 104 | 54 to 125 | 81% | 67% | 48% | 30% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 85 | 70 to 100 | 50 to 120 | 76% | 59% | 39% | 23% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Dayna Finn | WL | 84 | 70 to 99 | 49 to 119 | 75% | 57% | 37% | 22% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 49 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | WR | 84 | 70 to 99 | 49 to 119 | 76% | 57% | 37% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 84 | 69 to 98 | 49 to 118 | 74% | 56% | 35% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 70 | 57 to 84 | 38 to 103 | 50% | 33% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFL | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Amelia Velardo | BPL | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Harriet Cordner | CHB | 52 | 40 to 64 | 23 to 82 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 94 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFR | 52 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Lila Keck | HFFR | 47 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Yasmin Duursma | INT | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 74 |
| Tara Bohanna | FPR | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Brooke Vickers | HBFL | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Brooke Boileau | INT | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 32 | 22 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |
| Siofra O'Connell | INT | 32 | 21 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 26 |
| Aisling Reidy | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 90 | 75 to 104 | 54 to 125 | 81% | 68% | 49% | 31% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 107 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 76 | 62 to 90 | 43 to 110 | 60% | 41% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Tarni White | WL | 72 | 58 to 85 | 39 to 104 | 53% | 35% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Brianna Davey | C | 64 | 51 to 77 | 32 to 96 | 37% | 22% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Carly Remmos | HFFR | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Ruby Schleicher | CHF | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Ariana Hetherington | CHB | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Jordyn Allen | FB | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Kalinda Howarth | HBFL | 48 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Lucille Cronin | FPR | 48 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Violet Patterson | FF | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Dominique Carbone | HBFR | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Josephine Bamford | RK | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 43 | 32 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Imogen Trengove | R | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9 |
| Mischa Barwin | HFFL | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Eliza James | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 31 |
| Charlotte Brewer | INT | 27 | 17 to 37 | 3 to 51 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 27 | 17 to 37 | 3 to 50 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 29 |
| Georgia Knight | INT | 25 | 15 to 34 | 2 to 48 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11 |