AFLW · ROUND 4 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Collingwood
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 32
CAR to win, 90% chance
CAR 90%10% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 39
HIT Actual margin 39 · 6.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 1.3 | 0.9 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 84% | 39% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tara Bohanna | FPR | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 64% | 25% | 12% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | WR | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 56% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 47% | 20% | 8% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WL | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 57% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lila Keck | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 25% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 43% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 39% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Abbie McKay | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aisling Reidy | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brooke Boileau | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruby Schleicher | CHF | 0.6 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 43% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Kalinda Howarth | HBFL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 43% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eliza James | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mischa Barwin | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Carly Remmos | HFFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucille Cronin | FPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Violet Patterson | FF | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 24% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brianna Davey | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlotte Brewer | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Knight | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tarni White | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |