AFLW · ROUND 4 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Collingwood
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 32
CAR to win, 90% chance
CAR 90%10% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 39
HIT Actual margin 39 · 6.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayna Finn | WL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.1 to 7.3 | 58% | 40% | 24% | 15% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | CHB | 3.7 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.1 to 7.3 | 60% | 40% | 24% | 16% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 33% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 37% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | WR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 25% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tara Bohanna | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Abbie McKay | R | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lila Keck | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | BPL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Aisling Reidy | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Brooke Boileau | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarni White | WL | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.0 to 7.0 | 58% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | FB | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 42% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Kalinda Howarth | HBFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 39% | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 33% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lucille Cronin | FPR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 26% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 20% | 10% | 4% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mischa Barwin | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ruby Schleicher | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Violet Patterson | FF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brianna Davey | C | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 12% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Carly Remmos | HFFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Eliza James | INT | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | HBFR | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Charlotte Brewer | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Knight | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | R | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | RK | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |